A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
